Elections

A missed memory card did flip a Georgia House race. No sign of fraud.

Seminole County never uploaded one Election Day card. The state's check caught it, and the Republican took the lead. The "exact number" claim is wrong.

· @LeadingReport · on XThe post we're checking
Georgia election officials discover missing memory card with 388 uncounted votes, flipping state House race from Democrat to Republican.
Screenshot of the post on X. Shown for commentary.
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Georgia election officials discover missing memory card with 388 uncounted votes, flipping state House race from Democrat to Republican.
Posted Nov 7, 2026About 5.9M views and 45.6K likes on X as of Nov. 8. The account has about 1M followers. Posts suggesting fraud drew another 690K and 116K views.See the original

The bottom line

The post is right that a Seminole County memory card holding several hundred Election Day votes was never uploaded, and adding it put Republican Gerald Greene ahead by 262. It wasn't the exact number needed. Greene netted 320. The state caught the gap by matching check-ins to ballots, and nothing shows fraud. Results aren't certified yet.

The claims

What the post says or clearly implies, checked one by one. How verdicts work

1

Officials found a missing memory card with 388 uncounted votes that flipped a Georgia House race to the Republican.

Checks out

A Seminole County Election Day card was never uploaded. Adding it turned a 58-vote lead for Democrat Harry James in House District 154 into a 262-vote lead for Republican Gerald Greene. The results are unofficial.

In routine post-election checks, the Secretary of State's office found "approximately 388 more voters recorded as having checked in at polling places on Election Day than the number of ballots reported as cast" in Seminole County. The county then found an Election Day card never uploaded1.

James led by 58 before the upload, and Greene, the incumbent, led by 262 after it2,3. The state's results page, updated Nov. 7, now shows Greene at 10,193 and James at 9,932, a 261-vote gap by our calculation, one fewer than the state announced, for reasons not yet explained4. Seminole's Precinct 5 shows 354 Election Day votes for Greene and 34 for James5. By our reading, that is 388 votes netting 320, the same as the swing. Officials haven't said which precinct the card came from.

If it stands, and with other races still open, Democrats would hold 92 of 180 House seats, one more than the 91 needed for a majority3. Counties must certify by 5 p.m. the Monday after the election, which is Nov. 96.

2

The card held the exact number of votes needed to change the result.

Wrong

Greene needed a net gain of 59 votes to pass James. The late votes netted him 320, more than five times that, by our calculation from the reported margins.

A quote-post with about 690,000 views7 said the card held "the exact number of votes needed to change the election." James led by 58 before the upload, and Greene led by 262 after it2.

The 388 in the post is the gap between Election Day check-ins and counted ballots1. It isn't a margin. Greene's 261-vote lead on the state's page is about 1.3% of the 20,125 votes cast, by our calculation4. That's above the 0.5% margin that gives a losing candidate the right to a recount8. A 2026 law adds automatic hand recounts, but only for statewide executive races listed first or second on the ballot and decided by less than 0.5%9.

3

A forgotten card that flips a race after Election Day suggests fraud, and other races may be missing cards too.

Unsupported

Nothing shows anyone acted on purpose. The late votes match a gap between check-ins and counted ballots. The state is investigating how the card was missed.

The post alleges nothing itself. The fraud reading comes from other posts asking "What are the odds of that" (about 690,000 views)7 and "How many other races did they forget to upload memory cards?" (about 116,000)10.

The gap ran one way: more voters checked in than ballots were counted1. So the missing ballots most likely came from people the poll books already showed as voting. The printed paper ballot is the official ballot in any recount or audit11. The state is examining "how the memory card was overlooked" and "whether required election procedures were followed"1. Counties must file a reconciliation report within 30 days after certification12.

Georgia has missed cards before. The 2020 hand audit found uncounted cards in three counties and 2,600 unscanned ballots in Floyd13,14. In 2022, a card with 789 ballots changed the projected winner of a Kennesaw council race, and Cobb County scheduled a re-certification15. We found no report of another gap this year.

The real disagreement

Facts can't settle this part, so we don't rule on it.

Should Georgia add hand counts people can see on election night, or keep relying on scanners checked by reconciliation and audits afterward?

Georgia voters mark choices on touchscreens that print paper ballots, and scanners count them12. The paper is the official ballot for recounts and audits11. Georgia's risk-limiting audits must cover congressional and top statewide races, not state House seats, though counties may audit more16. A 2026 law requires hand recounts in statewide executive races listed first or second on the ballot when the margin is under 0.5%, not in House races9. Seminole's gap was announced three days after the election, after the state's own review1.

Add human counts people can see

Checks that catch errors days later leave too long a window for doubt.

For three days the count showed the other candidate ahead in a race that sets the size of Democrats' new House majority3. In 2020, a Fayette card with 2,755 votes surfaced only in a hand audit. "Because of the audit, we found this," a state official said17.

In 2024, Georgia's election board voted to have poll workers count ballots, not votes, at each polling place. "What I don't want to do is set a precedent that we're OK with speed over accuracy," board member Janelle King said18. Georgia's Supreme Court struck it down on the board's authority19. No audit is required for state House races16. Statistical audits "are no substitute" for real audits in every election, the Heritage Foundation argues20.

Keep scanners and check the paper

The safeguard did its job, and hand counts would add more errors than they catch.

"Georgia's election safeguards are designed to identify discrepancies, and that is exactly what these guardrails did," Raffensperger said of Seminole1. The gap was found before the county certified. When Georgia hand-tallied 5,023,513 machine-counted votes in 2020, the presidential margin moved by 49621. That same audit is how the missed cards were found13.

People count worse than machines. A Rice and Clemson study found hand-count error rates of up to 2 percent22, and the Brennan Center puts hand-count errors at up to 50 times the machines' rate23. Raffensperger said opening ballot boxes at precincts on election night was "not even good practice," and Richmond County's elections director said "humans can't count"24. Hand counts also slow results: Georgia's 2020 hand tally of the presidential race took less than a week, with officials and citizens working overnight and through the weekend21.

Where they agree

  • Both sides want ballots matched to voters before results are final12,20.
  • Both treat the paper ballot as the final word when a count is in doubt11.

What would change minds

  • The state's finding on why Seminole's card was skipped, and whether the precinct's scanner tape showed the card's ballots.
  • A hand count of Seminole's Election Day paper ballots, compared with the card's totals.
  • Statewide data on how often reconciliation catches a missed upload before certification, and how often it doesn't.

Sources

Every source was opened and read. Advocacy groups are labeled as such.

Show all 24 sources
  1. 1
    Raffensperger Opens Investigation into Seminole County's Late Upload of Election Day Results
    Georgia Secretary of State2026-11-06Primary documentThe site blocks automated requests. We read it in a browser.
  2. 2
  3. 3
  4. 4
    State House of Representatives, District 154: unofficial results
    Georgia Secretary of State2026-11-07DataUnofficial results, last updated Nov. 7, 2026, 3:05 p.m. ET. Live page; figures may change.
  5. 5
    Seminole County: State House District 154 results by precinct
    Georgia Secretary of State2026-11-06DataUnofficial results, county last updated Nov. 6, 2026. Live page; figures may change.
  6. 6
  7. 7
    Quote-post of the Leading Report post
    @Nostre_damus on X2026-11-07Primary documentAbout 690,000 views as of Nov. 8.
  8. 8
    O.C.G.A. § 21-2-495: Procedure for recount or recanvass of votes
    Justia (2025 Code of Georgia)Primary document
  9. 9
  10. 10
    Post on the Seminole County memory card
    @MJTruthUltra on X2026-11-07Primary documentAbout 116,000 views as of Nov. 8.
  11. 11
    O.C.G.A. § 21-2-379.23: Requirements for ballot display; official ballot for recount
    Justia (2025 Code of Georgia)Primary documentVersion in effect until Jan. 1, 2028.
  12. 12
  13. 13
    Georgia recount: About 6,000 new votes found by manual audit
    Atlanta Journal-Constitution2020-11-18Journalism
  14. 14
  15. 15
  16. 16
  17. 17
  18. 18
  19. 19
    Georgia Supreme Court rejects State Election Board voting rules
    Atlanta Journal-Constitution2025-06-10Journalism
  20. 20
    Best Practices and Standards for Election Audits (Legal Memorandum No. 304)
    Heritage Foundation (Hans A. von Spakovsky)2022-06-15Advocacy / think tankConservative think tank.
  21. 21
    Georgia's 2020 audit is complete
    VotingWorks2020-11-18Advocacy / think tankNonprofit election-technology group that supplied the audit software.
  22. 22
    Hand counts of votes may cause errors, says new Rice U. study
    Rice University2012-02-02ResearchUniversity news release on a Rice and Clemson study.
  23. 23
    Hand counting ballots
    Brennan Center for Justice2024-07-29Advocacy / think tankLeft-leaning voting-rights think tank.
  24. 24

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