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Minority voters didn't flip Texas alone. White voters swung too.

A viral post blames Abbott's loss on minority voters and H-1B workers. Exit polls show white voters swung too, and H-1B holders can't vote.

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Isabella Maria DeLuca, digital strategist · @IsabellaMDeLuca · on XThe post we're checking
I moved from New York to Texas, and somehow woke up today in a blue state. Republicans have become completely out of touch with reality and the very base they claim to represent. Texas exit polling shows that the GOP’s losses were driven almost exclusively by “minority” voters. Greg Abbott spent years begging tech companies to relocate to Texas, bringing their H-1B employees with them, the majority of whom are from India. In Sugar Land, Texas, a 90-foot-tall statue of the Hindu god Hanuman was built. It is the tallest statue in Texas and the fourth tallest in the United States. We have fully functioning Sharia communities, along with Sharia courts and schools. Three mosques in Texas are funded, staffed, and directly controlled by the Turkish government. Abbott’s largest donor is a Muslim Pakistani who has contributed more than $14 million, including $2 million this year alone. The very people he has brought into Texas and allowed to take over have made the state unrecognizable—and have now voted him out. Republican leadership spent years reshaping Texas politically, culturally, and demographically, seemingly convinced their hold on the state was untouchable. In doing so, they have handed Democrats a historic victory of their own making.
Screenshot of the post on X. Shown for commentary.
Read the post as text
I moved from New York to Texas, and somehow woke up today in a blue state. Republicans have become completely out of touch with reality and the very base they claim to represent. Texas exit polling shows that the GOP’s losses were driven almost exclusively by “minority” voters. Greg Abbott spent years begging tech companies to relocate to Texas, bringing their H-1B employees with them, the majority of whom are from India. In Sugar Land, Texas, a 90-foot-tall statue of the Hindu god Hanuman was built. It is the tallest statue in Texas and the fourth tallest in the United States. We have fully functioning Sharia communities, along with Sharia courts and schools. Three mosques in Texas are funded, staffed, and directly controlled by the Turkish government. Abbott’s largest donor is a Muslim Pakistani who has contributed more than $14 million, including $2 million this year alone. The very people he has brought into Texas and allowed to take over have made the state unrecognizable—and have now voted him out. Republican leadership spent years reshaping Texas politically, culturally, and demographically, seemingly convinced their hold on the state was untouchable. In doing so, they have handed Democrats a historic victory of their own making.
Posted Nov 4, 2026248K views and 9.4K likes on X by about 8 a.m. ET Nov. 5.See the original

The bottom line

Texas exit polls don't show the GOP's losses came almost only from minority voters. White voters swung too, about 4 in 10 points of the shift. H-1B workers can't vote, and no 2026 data shows how newcomers voted. The lasting argument is over how much immigration Texas should want.

The claims

What the post says or clearly implies, checked one by one. How verdicts work

1

Texas exit polling shows the GOP's losses were driven "almost exclusively" by minority voters.

Wrong

Voters of color swung hardest, but white voters moved too: 14 points on the margin toward Hinojosa and 19 toward Talarico in the exit polls. By our calculation, they account for about 4 in 10 points of the swing.

In 2024, white Texans, 55% of voters, backed Trump 66% to 33%. This year they backed Abbott 59% to 40% and Paxton 56% to 42%1,2,3. By our calculation, Latino voters' shift moved the most votes, from 55% to 45% for Trump to 65% to 33% for Hinojosa. Asian and Black voters moved toward Democrats too1,2.

Weighting each group by its share of voters, people of color account for about 62% of the swing in the governor's race and white voters about 38%, by our calculation. In the Senate race white voters account for about 40%. Adding only the shift among voters of color to the 2024 result leaves Abbott narrowly ahead and flips the Senate race. The white shift alone leaves Republicans ahead in both2,3.

College-educated white voters went from backing Trump by 16 points to backing Hinojosa by 3. The margin moved 20 points among white men and 10 among white women1,2. Exit polls carry several points of error for each group.

2

Abbott's recruiting brought in H-1B workers, mostly from India, and they voted him out.

Wrong

Most approved H-1B petitions are for workers born in India, but H-1B workers aren't citizens and can't vote. Asian voters of every background were 4% of the electorate, roughly 125,000 votes of Hinojosa's 706,262-vote margin.

Seventy-one percent of H-1B petitions approved in fiscal 2024 were for workers born in India4. Employers had 127,136 positions certified for jobs in Texas in fiscal 2025 under the H-1B program and two similar visas, 14% of the national total and second to California5. But H-1B is a temporary work visa. Federal law makes it "unlawful for any alien to vote" for federal office, and Texas requires voters to be citizens6,7.

About 709,000 Texans identify as Asian Indian, including U.S.-born children and citizens8. In the exit poll, Asian voters of all origins were 4% of the electorate and backed Hinojosa 66% to 34%2. That accounts for roughly 125,000 votes of her 706,262-vote margin, by our calculation from the state's count9.

3

The people Abbott "brought into Texas" are the ones who voted him out.

Unsupported

NBC's exit poll didn't ask where voters were born, so no 2026 data shows how newcomers voted. In 2024, Texans born elsewhere did lean less Republican than natives, splitting about evenly.

NBC's exit poll this year didn't ask where voters were born. In 2024, Texans born elsewhere split 50% for Trump to 49% for Harris, while natives backed Trump 60% to 38%10. In 2018, newcomers were the more Republican group11. Neither poll separates immigrants from people who moved from other states.

Timing cuts against the idea. Net migration from other states added 470,702 people from April 2020 to July 2022, by our sum of Census estimates, and that November Abbott won by 883,443 votes12,13. Net figures understate the churn: in 2024 alone about 556,000 people moved in from other states and 483,000 left14. Net international migration added about 1 million from April 2020 to July 2025, most of it after 2022, and noncitizens can't vote12.

The exit poll does show switching. Ten percent of Trump's 2024 voters backed Hinojosa. Voters who sat out 2024, 8% of this year's electorate, backed her 76% to 20%2. Some of them are newcomers. The poll can't say how many.

The real disagreement

Facts can't settle this part, so we don't rule on it.

Should Texas and the country keep recruiting skilled immigrants and out-of-state workers to fuel growth, or slow immigration, H-1B visas included, even at some economic cost?

Nearly half of Texas workers were born outside the state, Dallas Fed economists found in 201815. The fight over skilled-worker visas runs through the right as well as between parties. Abbott froze new H-1B petitions at state agencies and public universities in January, through May 202716. Since February, the federal H-1B lottery has favored higher-paid applicants17. We don't rule on the post's claims about religious sites or Abbott's donors, which aren't about how Texans voted.

Keep recruiting skilled workers

Skilled immigrants raise American wages and build companies, so fix the H-1B program's flaws instead of closing the door.

Skilled newcomers grow the economy, and Texas shows how. Nearly half its workers were born outside the state, and 45% of its software developers were foreign born, many arriving on H-1B visas15. An NBER study of 219 cities found that when foreign STEM workers grew by one point of total jobs, wage growth for native college graduates rose 7 to 8 percentage points, and 3 to 4 for non-graduates18. Immigrants founded or cofounded 59% of America's billion-dollar startups, more from India than anywhere else19.

Turning them away can send the work abroad. Another NBER study found multinationals answered H-1B rejections by hiring abroad, especially in China, India and Canada20. And growth needs people. Texas job growth has slowed to 0.8% so far this year, well below its 2% norm, which the Dallas Fed ties partly to sharply lower immigration21.

Slow immigration and tighten H-1B

Most H-1B visas fill ordinary jobs at below-median pay, so America should admit fewer and let communities absorb newcomers at a steadier pace.

H-1B is sold as a pipeline for scarce talent. Labor Department filings show most of its jobs pay below the local median. The Economic Policy Institute found 60% of H-1B jobs certified in 2019 sat at the two lowest wage levels, and half of the 30 biggest users ran outsourcing models22. A 2011 GAO review called oversight "fragmented and restricted"23. Comparing visa lottery winners and losers, economists found each extra H-1B "crowds out about 1.5 other workers" at the firm24.

Pace matters too. Net international migration added about 1 million people to Texas from 2020 to 202512. Even research friendly to skilled immigration finds the inflow pushed up rents for college graduates18. Robert Putnam, who expects long-run gains from diversity, concluded that in the short run immigration and diversity tend to "reduce social solidarity and social capital"25.

Where they agree

  • Both sides would rather see H-1B visas go to higher-paid, harder-to-fill jobs than to cheaper substitutes for American workers17,22.
  • Both accept that companies respond to visa limits, and disagree about whether the work then stays here or moves abroad20,24.

What would change minds

  • Wage and hiring data from the first years of the higher-wage H-1B lottery would show whether aiming the program fixes what critics object to.
  • Studies tracking where the work goes when H-1B petitions are denied, to Americans or overseas, at the firms that use the program most.

Sources

Every source was opened and read. Advocacy groups are labeled as such.

Show all 25 sources
  1. 1
  2. 2
    Texas Governor Election 2026 Live Results (with exit poll)
    NBC News2026-11-04JournalismExit polls are estimates weighted to the vote count.
  3. 3
    Texas Senate Results 2026 (with exit poll)
    NBC News2026-11-04Journalism
  4. 4
    Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers, Fiscal Year 2024
    U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, copy hosted by Poder3602025-04-29DataUSCIS's annual report to Congress. USCIS's own site blocks automated access, so we link a verbatim copy.
  5. 5
    H-1B Temporary Specialty Occupations LCA Program, Selected Statistics, FY 2025
    U.S. Department of Labor2025-10DataCounts certified positions on employers' filings, not workers hired.
  6. 6
    18 U.S. Code § 611, Voting by aliens
    Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law SchoolPrimary document
  7. 7
    Request for Voter Registration Applications (qualifications)
    Texas Secretary of StatePrimary document
  8. 8
    B02018: Asian Alone or in Any Combination by Selected Groups, Texas, 2024 ACS 1-Year
    U.S. Census Bureau2025-09DataAsian Indian alone or in combination: 708,890, margin of error ±25,155.
  9. 9
    Election Night Results: 2026 November General Election
    Texas Secretary of State2026-11-04DataUnofficial results as of the Nov. 4, 4:48 p.m. CST update: Hinojosa 5,230,789, Abbott 4,524,527.
  10. 10
    Texas exit polls, 2024 presidential election
    CNN2024-11Journalism2,893 respondents.
  11. 11
  12. 12
    Annual Estimates of the Resident Population and Components of Change for States, Vintage 2025 (NST-EST2025-ALLDATA)
    U.S. Census BureauDataNet domestic migration to Texas by year: 52,502 (April to June 2020), 199,360, 218,840, 188,667, 86,067 and 67,299 (years ending June 2021 to 2025).
  13. 13
    Texas Governor Results 2022
    NBC News2022-11Journalism
  14. 14
    State-to-State Migration Flows, 2024 (Table 13)
    U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey2025DataTexas: 556,156 moved in from other states and 483,476 moved out, 2024 ACS estimates.
  15. 15
    Gone to Texas: Migration Vital to Growth in the Lone Star State
    Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Southwest Economy2018ResearchBy Pia Orrenius, Alexander T. Abraham and Stephanie Gullo. Uses 2011–16 ACS data.
  16. 16
    Gov. Abbott orders Texas universities, agencies to halt H-1B visa petitions
    The Texas Tribune, via ABC132026-01-27JournalismBy Jessica Priest.
  17. 17
  18. 18
    Wage and Employment Effects of Foreign STEM Workers
    NBER Digest (National Bureau of Economic Research)2014-10-01ResearchSummary of Working Paper 20093 by Giovanni Peri, Kevin Shih and Chad Sparber, covering 219 cities, 1990–2010. Higher housing costs absorbed about half of college graduates' gain in purchasing power.
  19. 19
    Immigrants and U.S. Billion-Dollar Companies
    National Foundation for American Policy2026-06Advocacy / think tankResearch group that favors expanded legal immigration. By Stuart Anderson.
  20. 20
    How Do Restrictions on High-Skilled Immigration Affect Offshoring? Evidence from the H-1B Program (NBER Working Paper 27538)
    National Bureau of Economic Research2023-02ResearchBy Britta Glennon. Published in Management Science, 2024.
  21. 21
    Texas Employment Forecast
    Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas2026-10-19Data
  22. 22
    H-1B visas and prevailing wage levels
    Economic Policy Institute2020-05-04Advocacy / think tankLabor-aligned think tank. By Daniel Costa and Ron Hira, using fiscal 2019 Labor Department data.
  23. 23
    H-1B Visa Program: Reforms Are Needed to Minimize the Risks and Costs of Current Program (GAO-11-26)
    U.S. Government Accountability Office2011-01-14ResearchCongress's nonpartisan audit agency.
  24. 24
    The Effects of High-Skilled Immigration Policy on Firms: Evidence from Visa Lotteries (NBER Working Paper 20668)
    National Bureau of Economic Research2022-06ResearchBy Kirk Doran, Alexander Gelber and Adam Isen. Published in the Journal of Political Economy, 2022.
  25. 25
    E Pluribus Unum: Diversity and Community in the Twenty-first Century
    Scandinavian Political Studies2007-06-15ResearchBy Harvard political scientist Robert D. Putnam.

Think we got something wrong? Email editor@viewfromthegallery.com with a source. Corrections are made openly and logged on the page.