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Economy · Energy · Immigration · Elections

Biden gas $5.03, Trump gas $4.33: both real, not a fair comparison

Averaged over each term so far, gas has cost about the same under both presidents. We also check the cartoon's border and crime lines.

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A.F. Branco · @afbrancoThe post we're checking
Two-panel cartoon, "The Fickle Vote." Left: a blue pump reads "BIDEN GAS $5.03" and a man says "That does it! I'm voting for Trump!" Right: a red pump reads "TRUMP GAS $4.33" and a man says "That does it! I'm voting for open borders, men in girl's bathrooms, and higher crime!" Headline: "Ruin the country over gas prices?" Caption: "Some voters are willing to hand the country back to open-border, men-in-girls' bathrooms Democrats over gas prices."
© 2026 A.F. Branco / Creators. Shown for commentary.
Posted Oct 20, 2026Syndicated by Creators and shared widely, including on r/ConservativeSee the original

The bottom line

Both pump prices are real, but $5.03 was a brief record. Over each term, gas averaged about the same. Adjusted for inflation, Biden's years cost more. Border crossings set records under Biden, fell under his 2024 limits and further under Trump's. Violent crime is down, and was already falling. The real fight: how much should the pump decide a vote?

Make your own gas-price cartoon

Biden gas
$5.01
Week of June 13, 2022
$5.71 in today's dollars
Trump gas
$4.33
Week of Oct. 12, 2026
$4.33 in today's dollars
At the pump: $0.67 cheaper under Trump.In today's dollars: $1.38 cheaper under Trump.Both prices are real. That's the trick.
Every price here is a real EIA weekly national average for regular gas3. Pick the right two weeks and either president comes out ahead. The term averages are both about $3.46 so far.

The claims

What the post says or clearly implies, checked one by one. How verdicts work

1

Gas hit $5.03 a gallon under Biden and was $4.33 under Trump this month.

Checks out

Both are real national averages. $5.03 was GasBuddy's one-day record, on June 14, 2022, and gas stayed at $5 or more for about a week. $4.33 was EIA's average on Oct. 12. It's about $4.27 now.

GasBuddy's national average peaked at $5.03 on June 14, 20221. AAA's record that day was $5.01652, and EIA's weekly survey topped out at $5.0063. Crude oil was above $120 a barrel after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine4,5, and gas stayed at or above $5 for about one week6.

EIA had regular gas at $4.331 on Oct. 12 and $4.284 on Oct. 19, and $4.269 on Oct. 267. AAA's average was $4.27 on Oct. 272. Gas was about $3.11 the morning Biden left office, fell to $2.78 in January 2026, and has peaked so far at $4.50 in May 20263.

This year's jump came after the U.S. war with Iran, now nearly eight months old, disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz8. Before the conflict, EIA expected 2026 gas to average $2.91. It now expects $3.919,10.

2

Gas is cheaper under Trump than it was under Biden.

Misleading

It pits Biden's brief record against a recent Trump-era price. Full-term averages are nearly tied at the pump, and lower under Trump after inflation. At the same point in each term, gas is about 40 cents higher now.

By our calculation from EIA's weekly data, gas averaged $3.456 a gallon under Biden and $3.458 so far under Trump. In the same week of each term, it was $3.87 (Oct. 17, 2022) and $4.28 (Oct. 19, 2026). Only 13 of Biden's 209 weeks topped that $4.28, all from March to July 20223. CNN, counting daily AAA prices against Oct. 12's $4.36, found 76 of Biden's 1,460 days higher5.

Adjusted for inflation, the picture tilts the other way: in today's dollars, Biden's peak was about $5.71 and his term average about $3.93, versus $4.53 and $3.55 under Trump so far. That week, adjusted prices were a bit higher under Biden: $4.37 then, $4.28 now3,11.

CNN's Oct. 26 headline, "Gas under Trump 2.0 is now more expensive than it was under Biden," uses full terms and AAA data but gives no averages8. On EIA's data the averages differ by less than a penny, and adjusted for inflation Biden's term cost more. By the same standard, that headline is misleading too: a near-tie sold as a win.

Both prices are real. At the pump, term averages are nearly tied.

Bidenavg $3.46Trumpavg $3.46$2$3$4$5$6202120222023202420252026June 2022 peak: $5.01Oct. 12: $4.33
Weekly U.S. average price of regular gas from EIA's survey3. Each Monday survey counts toward whoever was president that morning. Lines mark term averages, Trump's so far. EIA's peak ($5.01) is a bit below GasBuddy's $5.03. Inflation adjustment uses the CPI11.
Show the numbers
DatePump priceIn today's dollars
Jan. 4, 2021$2.25$2.88
Jan. 11, 2021$2.32$2.97
Jan. 18, 2021$2.38$3.05
Jan. 25, 2021$2.39$3.06
Feb. 1, 2021$2.41$3.07
Feb. 8, 2021$2.46$3.14
Feb. 15, 2021$2.50$3.19
Feb. 22, 2021$2.63$3.36
March 1, 2021$2.71$3.44
March 8, 2021$2.77$3.52
March 15, 2021$2.85$3.62
March 22, 2021$2.87$3.64
March 29, 2021$2.85$3.62
April 5, 2021$2.86$3.60
April 12, 2021$2.85$3.59
April 19, 2021$2.85$3.60
April 26, 2021$2.87$3.62
May 3, 2021$2.89$3.62
May 10, 2021$2.96$3.71
May 17, 2021$3.03$3.79
May 24, 2021$3.02$3.78
May 31, 2021$3.03$3.79
June 7, 2021$3.04$3.77
June 14, 2021$3.07$3.81
June 21, 2021$3.06$3.80
June 28, 2021$3.09$3.84
July 5, 2021$3.12$3.86
July 12, 2021$3.13$3.88
July 19, 2021$3.15$3.90
July 26, 2021$3.14$3.88
Aug. 2, 2021$3.16$3.90
Aug. 9, 2021$3.17$3.91
Aug. 16, 2021$3.17$3.92
Aug. 23, 2021$3.15$3.88
Aug. 30, 2021$3.14$3.87
Sept. 6, 2021$3.18$3.90
Sept. 13, 2021$3.17$3.89
Sept. 20, 2021$3.18$3.91
Sept. 27, 2021$3.17$3.90
Oct. 4, 2021$3.19$3.88
Oct. 11, 2021$3.27$3.97
Oct. 18, 2021$3.32$4.04
Oct. 25, 2021$3.38$4.11
Nov. 1, 2021$3.39$4.09
Nov. 8, 2021$3.41$4.11
Nov. 15, 2021$3.40$4.10
Nov. 22, 2021$3.40$4.09
Nov. 29, 2021$3.38$4.08
Dec. 6, 2021$3.34$4.00
Dec. 13, 2021$3.31$3.97
Dec. 20, 2021$3.29$3.95
Dec. 27, 2021$3.27$3.92
Jan. 3, 2022$3.28$3.90
Jan. 10, 2022$3.29$3.92
Jan. 17, 2022$3.31$3.94
Jan. 24, 2022$3.32$3.96
Jan. 31, 2022$3.37$4.01
Feb. 7, 2022$3.44$4.07
Feb. 14, 2022$3.49$4.12
Feb. 21, 2022$3.53$4.17
Feb. 28, 2022$3.61$4.26
March 7, 2022$4.10$4.79
March 14, 2022$4.32$5.04
March 21, 2022$4.24$4.96
March 28, 2022$4.23$4.95
April 4, 2022$4.17$4.86
April 11, 2022$4.09$4.77
April 18, 2022$4.07$4.74
April 25, 2022$4.11$4.79
May 2, 2022$4.18$4.83
May 9, 2022$4.33$5.00
May 16, 2022$4.49$5.18
May 23, 2022$4.59$5.30
May 30, 2022$4.62$5.34
June 6, 2022$4.88$5.56
June 13, 2022$5.01$5.71
June 20, 2022$4.96$5.66
June 27, 2022$4.87$5.55
July 4, 2022$4.77$5.44
July 11, 2022$4.65$5.30
July 18, 2022$4.49$5.12
July 25, 2022$4.33$4.94
Aug. 1, 2022$4.19$4.78
Aug. 8, 2022$4.04$4.60
Aug. 15, 2022$3.94$4.49
Aug. 22, 2022$3.88$4.42
Aug. 29, 2022$3.83$4.36
Sept. 5, 2022$3.75$4.25
Sept. 12, 2022$3.69$4.19
Sept. 19, 2022$3.65$4.15
Sept. 26, 2022$3.71$4.21
Oct. 3, 2022$3.78$4.27
Oct. 10, 2022$3.91$4.42
Oct. 17, 2022$3.87$4.37
Oct. 24, 2022$3.77$4.25
Oct. 31, 2022$3.74$4.22
Nov. 7, 2022$3.80$4.27
Nov. 14, 2022$3.76$4.23
Nov. 21, 2022$3.65$4.11
Nov. 28, 2022$3.53$3.98
Dec. 5, 2022$3.39$3.81
Dec. 12, 2022$3.24$3.65
Dec. 19, 2022$3.12$3.51
Dec. 26, 2022$3.09$3.48
Jan. 2, 2023$3.22$3.61
Jan. 9, 2023$3.26$3.65
Jan. 16, 2023$3.31$3.71
Jan. 23, 2023$3.42$3.82
Jan. 30, 2023$3.49$3.91
Feb. 6, 2023$3.44$3.84
Feb. 13, 2023$3.39$3.78
Feb. 20, 2023$3.38$3.77
Feb. 27, 2023$3.34$3.73
March 6, 2023$3.39$3.78
March 13, 2023$3.46$3.85
March 20, 2023$3.42$3.81
March 27, 2023$3.42$3.81
April 3, 2023$3.50$3.88
April 10, 2023$3.60$3.99
April 17, 2023$3.66$4.07
April 24, 2023$3.66$4.06
May 1, 2023$3.60$3.99
May 8, 2023$3.53$3.92
May 15, 2023$3.54$3.92
May 22, 2023$3.53$3.92
May 29, 2023$3.57$3.96
June 5, 2023$3.54$3.92
June 12, 2023$3.60$3.98
June 19, 2023$3.58$3.96
June 26, 2023$3.57$3.95
July 3, 2023$3.53$3.89
July 10, 2023$3.55$3.92
July 17, 2023$3.56$3.93
July 24, 2023$3.60$3.97
July 31, 2023$3.76$4.15
Aug. 7, 2023$3.83$4.21
Aug. 14, 2023$3.85$4.23
Aug. 21, 2023$3.87$4.25
Aug. 28, 2023$3.81$4.19
Sept. 4, 2023$3.81$4.17
Sept. 11, 2023$3.82$4.18
Sept. 18, 2023$3.88$4.24
Sept. 25, 2023$3.84$4.20
Oct. 2, 2023$3.80$4.15
Oct. 9, 2023$3.68$4.03
Oct. 16, 2023$3.58$3.91
Oct. 23, 2023$3.53$3.86
Oct. 30, 2023$3.47$3.80
Nov. 6, 2023$3.40$3.71
Nov. 13, 2023$3.35$3.65
Nov. 20, 2023$3.29$3.59
Nov. 27, 2023$3.24$3.53
Dec. 4, 2023$3.23$3.52
Dec. 11, 2023$3.14$3.42
Dec. 18, 2023$3.05$3.33
Dec. 25, 2023$3.12$3.39
Jan. 1, 2024$3.09$3.35
Jan. 8, 2024$3.07$3.34
Jan. 15, 2024$3.06$3.32
Jan. 22, 2024$3.06$3.33
Jan. 29, 2024$3.10$3.36
Feb. 5, 2024$3.14$3.39
Feb. 12, 2024$3.19$3.45
Feb. 19, 2024$3.27$3.54
Feb. 26, 2024$3.25$3.51
March 4, 2024$3.35$3.61
March 11, 2024$3.38$3.63
March 18, 2024$3.45$3.72
March 25, 2024$3.52$3.79
April 1, 2024$3.52$3.78
April 8, 2024$3.59$3.86
April 15, 2024$3.63$3.90
April 22, 2024$3.67$3.94
April 29, 2024$3.65$3.92
May 6, 2024$3.64$3.91
May 13, 2024$3.61$3.87
May 20, 2024$3.58$3.85
May 27, 2024$3.58$3.84
June 3, 2024$3.52$3.78
June 10, 2024$3.43$3.68
June 17, 2024$3.44$3.69
June 24, 2024$3.44$3.69
July 1, 2024$3.48$3.73
July 8, 2024$3.49$3.74
July 15, 2024$3.50$3.75
July 22, 2024$3.47$3.72
July 29, 2024$3.48$3.74
Aug. 5, 2024$3.45$3.69
Aug. 12, 2024$3.41$3.66
Aug. 19, 2024$3.38$3.62
Aug. 26, 2024$3.31$3.55
Sept. 2, 2024$3.29$3.51
Sept. 9, 2024$3.24$3.46
Sept. 16, 2024$3.18$3.40
Sept. 23, 2024$3.19$3.40
Sept. 30, 2024$3.18$3.40
Oct. 7, 2024$3.14$3.34
Oct. 14, 2024$3.17$3.38
Oct. 21, 2024$3.14$3.35
Oct. 28, 2024$3.10$3.30
Nov. 4, 2024$3.07$3.26
Nov. 11, 2024$3.05$3.24
Nov. 18, 2024$3.05$3.24
Nov. 25, 2024$3.04$3.23
Dec. 2, 2024$3.03$3.21
Dec. 9, 2024$3.01$3.19
Dec. 16, 2024$3.02$3.19
Dec. 23, 2024$3.02$3.20
Dec. 30, 2024$3.01$3.18
Jan. 6, 2025$3.05$3.21
Jan. 13, 2025$3.04$3.21
Jan. 20, 2025$3.11$3.28
Jan. 27, 2025$3.10$3.27
Feb. 3, 2025$3.08$3.24
Feb. 10, 2025$3.13$3.29
Feb. 17, 2025$3.15$3.31
Feb. 24, 2025$3.13$3.29
March 3, 2025$3.08$3.24
March 10, 2025$3.07$3.23
March 17, 2025$3.06$3.22
March 24, 2025$3.12$3.28
March 31, 2025$3.16$3.33
April 7, 2025$3.24$3.40
April 14, 2025$3.17$3.33
April 21, 2025$3.14$3.30
April 28, 2025$3.13$3.29
May 5, 2025$3.15$3.30
May 12, 2025$3.12$3.27
May 19, 2025$3.17$3.33
May 26, 2025$3.16$3.31
June 2, 2025$3.13$3.27
June 9, 2025$3.11$3.25
June 16, 2025$3.14$3.28
June 23, 2025$3.21$3.36
June 30, 2025$3.16$3.31
July 7, 2025$3.13$3.26
July 14, 2025$3.13$3.27
July 21, 2025$3.12$3.26
July 28, 2025$3.12$3.26
Aug. 4, 2025$3.14$3.27
Aug. 11, 2025$3.12$3.24
Aug. 18, 2025$3.13$3.25
Aug. 25, 2025$3.15$3.27
Sept. 1, 2025$3.18$3.29
Sept. 8, 2025$3.19$3.31
Sept. 15, 2025$3.17$3.29
Sept. 22, 2025$3.17$3.29
Sept. 29, 2025$3.12$3.23
Oct. 6, 2025$3.12$3.24
Oct. 13, 2025$3.06$3.17
Oct. 20, 2025$3.02$3.13
Oct. 27, 2025$3.04$3.14
Nov. 3, 2025$3.02$3.12
Nov. 10, 2025$3.06$3.16
Nov. 17, 2025$3.06$3.17
Nov. 24, 2025$3.06$3.17
Dec. 1, 2025$2.98$3.08
Dec. 8, 2025$2.94$3.03
Dec. 15, 2025$2.90$2.99
Dec. 22, 2025$2.84$2.93
Dec. 29, 2025$2.81$2.90
Jan. 5, 2026$2.80$2.88
Jan. 12, 2026$2.78$2.86
Jan. 19, 2026$2.81$2.89
Jan. 26, 2026$2.85$2.94
Feb. 2, 2026$2.87$2.94
Feb. 9, 2026$2.90$2.98
Feb. 16, 2026$2.92$3.00
Feb. 23, 2026$2.94$3.02
March 2, 2026$3.02$3.07
March 9, 2026$3.50$3.57
March 16, 2026$3.72$3.79
March 23, 2026$3.96$4.03
March 30, 2026$3.99$4.06
April 6, 2026$4.12$4.17
April 13, 2026$4.12$4.17
April 20, 2026$4.04$4.09
April 27, 2026$4.12$4.17
May 4, 2026$4.45$4.48
May 11, 2026$4.50$4.53
May 18, 2026$4.49$4.52
May 25, 2026$4.47$4.51
June 1, 2026$4.30$4.35
June 8, 2026$4.15$4.19
June 15, 2026$4.05$4.10
June 22, 2026$3.91$3.96
June 29, 2026$3.83$3.87
July 6, 2026$3.78$3.82
July 13, 2026$3.85$3.90
July 20, 2026$4.00$4.04
July 27, 2026$4.10$4.14
Aug. 3, 2026$4.08$4.11
Aug. 10, 2026$4.01$4.03
Aug. 17, 2026$4.05$4.08
Aug. 24, 2026$4.08$4.11
Aug. 31, 2026$4.07$4.10
Sept. 7, 2026$4.16$4.16
Sept. 14, 2026$4.32$4.32
Sept. 21, 2026$4.48$4.48
Sept. 28, 2026$4.46$4.46
Oct. 5, 2026$4.35$4.35
Oct. 12, 2026$4.33$4.33
Oct. 19, 2026$4.28$4.28
Oct. 26, 2026$4.27$4.27
3

Voting for Democrats means open borders.

Misleading

Crossings hit records under Biden, and millions were allowed in to pursue their cases. But there were also millions of expulsions and removals, apprehensions fell by more than half under his 2024 limits, and Democrats' platform backed shutdown power.

Apprehensions hit records under Biden: 249,740 in December 2023, by our sums12. Biden paused wall construction13 and ended Remain in Mexico14. By July 2024, over 5.8 million had been paroled in or allowed entry to pursue cases, including through parole programs, MPI estimates15.

Biden's administration expelled migrants over 2.5 million times under a pandemic rule15, and its fiscal 2024 removals and returns were the most since 201016. After his June 2024 asylum limits, apprehensions fell by more than half. Trump then barred asylum at the border, a bar an appeals court ruled unlawful but left standing pending appeal17,18. Apprehensions have since averaged about 7,800 a month, by our sums12. Some researchers argue forces like violence and drought matter more than policy19.

Democrats' 2024 platform, and a bipartisan bill most Senate Democrats voted to take up and Trump opposed, backed emergency power to shut down the border20,21,22. The bill made it mandatory at a weekly average of 5,000 encounters a day23. Some Democrats want ICE abolished. Many others want reforms24.

Crossings set records under Biden, then fell in 2024 and again in 2025

TrumpBidenavg 152,852Trumpavg 7,835050K100K150K200K250K20192020202120222023202420252026Dec. 2023 record: 249,7402024 limits: 83,532
Monthly Border Patrol apprehensions between ports of entry at the southwest border, by our sums of CBP data12. Port arrivals, including CBP One, aren't counted. Each month counts toward whoever was president for most of it. Until May 2023, many were repeat crossers expelled under a pandemic rule39.
Show the numbers
MonthApprehensions
Oct. 201851,005
Nov. 201851,857
Dec. 201850,751
Jan. 201947,979
Feb. 201966,883
March 201992,833
April 201999,273
May 2019132,856
June 201994,902
July 201971,978
Aug. 201950,684
Sept. 201940,507
Oct. 201935,402
Nov. 201933,524
Dec. 201932,853
Jan. 202029,205
Feb. 202030,077
March 202030,389
April 202016,182
May 202021,593
June 202030,836
July 202038,536
Aug. 202047,283
Sept. 202054,771
Oct. 202069,032
Nov. 202069,169
Dec. 202071,141
Jan. 202175,316
Feb. 202197,643
March 2021169,216
April 2021173,699
May 2021172,654
June 2021178,649
July 2021200,658
Aug. 2021196,514
Sept. 2021185,515
Oct. 2021159,113
Nov. 2021167,015
Dec. 2021170,602
Jan. 2022147,877
Feb. 2022159,170
March 2022211,181
April 2022203,504
May 2022224,370
June 2022192,399
July 2022181,834
Aug. 2022181,774
Sept. 2022207,597
Oct. 2022205,134
Nov. 2022207,680
Dec. 2022222,018
Jan. 2023129,513
Feb. 2023130,521
March 2023163,672
April 2023183,921
May 2023171,382
June 202399,538
July 2023132,642
Aug. 2023181,054
Sept. 2023218,763
Oct. 2023188,749
Nov. 2023191,106
Dec. 2023249,740
Jan. 2024124,215
Feb. 2024140,641
March 2024137,473
April 2024128,895
May 2024117,905
June 202483,532
July 202456,400
Aug. 202458,009
Sept. 202453,858
Oct. 202456,515
Nov. 202446,609
Dec. 202447,320
Jan. 202529,105
Feb. 20258,349
March 20257,179
April 20258,376
May 20258,724
June 20256,066
July 20254,592
Aug. 20256,317
Sept. 20258,386
Oct. 20257,987
Nov. 20257,353
Dec. 20256,476
Jan. 20266,077
Feb. 20266,599
March 20268,271
April 20268,969
May 202610,011
June 20269,856
July 20269,296
Aug. 20268,874
Sept. 20268,936
4

Voting for Democrats means higher crime.

Misleading

Violent crime is lower now than in any Biden year, but it also fell every year from 2022 through 2024, and there's no good evidence that the party in power drives crime rates.

FBI estimates show murder down 6.1% in 2022, 11.6% in 2023 and 14.9% in 202425,26,27, then 18.1% in 2025, when violent crime had its largest one-year drop since FBI estimates began28. Big-city data show the decline continuing into 202629.

Some data cut the other way: murder rose again in 2021, after a record jump in 2020, Trump's last full year30,31, and the federal victimization survey showed violent victimization rising in 202232. But the strongest causal study, comparing cities where mayoral races were close, finds the winning party makes no difference to crime rates33. It covers mayors, not presidents.

The real disagreement

Facts can't settle this part, so we don't rule on it.

How much should a president be blamed, or credited, for what you pay at the pump?

Crude oil makes up about half the price of a gallon, and it's priced on a world market34,35. Voters' answer tends to depend on who's in office: Democrats saying a president can do a lot about gas prices fell from 71% under Bush to 42% under Obama, while Republicans rose from 54% to 69%36.

Presidents should answer for the pump

Policy moves prices by cents and war by dollars, and voters are right to judge how a president uses those levers.

Presidents can't set the price, but they hold real levers. Treasury estimated that the 2022 release from the strategic reserve cut gasoline by 17 to 42 cents a gallon37. Decisions about war and peace can matter far more: before the 2026 conflict with Iran, EIA expected gas to average $2.91 this year, and it now expects $3.919,10.

Even a few cents matter to a family that fills up every week, and the pump is the price voters feel most directly. Accountability doesn't require total control. It means judging whether a president used the margin he has well, by the same standard whichever party governs.

The pump is a poor report card

Crude is priced by the world, not the White House, so gas prices mostly reward or punish luck.

Crude is the largest part of a gallon's price34, and EIA says it is "driven by global supply and demand," moved by OPEC, wars, weather and refinery outages35. In a 2012 Chicago Booth survey, 36 of the 39 leading economists who answered agreed that a decade of gas-price changes was mainly due to market factors rather than federal policy, and none disagreed38.

The 2022 record came after Russia invaded Ukraine5. Who gets blamed tracks party more than evidence36. Grading presidents on the weekly average rewards timing, punishes whoever holds office when a shock hits, and invites quick fixes. Judge the decisions themselves on their merits instead.

Where they agree

  • Both sides accept that crude oil, priced on a world market, is about half the cost of a gallon34,35.
  • Both agree that big shocks, like the 2026 disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, move prices far more than routine policy does10,38.

What would change minds

  • One yardstick applied to every president, such as inflation-adjusted averages over comparable stretches of each term.
  • Estimates in cents per gallon of what specific decisions, like reserve releases, sanctions, permits or military action, actually did to prices.

Sources

Every source was opened and read. Advocacy groups are labeled as such.

Show all 39 sources
  1. 1
    National gas price average under $4 per gallon for first time since March
    WDBJ72022-08-09JournalismReprints a GasBuddy price release
  2. 2
    AAA Fuel Prices
    AAA2026-10-27DataMotorist club; daily survey of station prices
  3. 3
    Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon)
    U.S. Energy Information AdministrationDataTerm averages and inflation adjustments are our own calculations from this series
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    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    U.S. Energy Information Administration2026-10-27Data
  8. 8
    Gas under Trump 2.0 is now more expensive than it was under Biden
    CNN Business (Matt Egan)2026-10-26Journalism
  9. 9
    Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2026
    U.S. Energy Information Administration2026-02DataPre-conflict forecast
  10. 10
    Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026
    U.S. Energy Information Administration2026-10-06Data
  11. 11
    Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL)
    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)DataUsed to convert prices to September 2026 dollars
  12. 12
    Southwest Land Border Encounters
    U.S. Customs and Border Protection2026-10DataBorder Patrol only; monthly totals and averages are our own sums of CBP's data files
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    Biden v. Texas
    U.S. Supreme Court2022-06-30Primary documentUpheld, 5-4, the administration's ending of Remain in Mexico
  15. 15
    Biden's Mixed Immigration Legacy
    Migration Policy Institute2024-12-10ResearchNonpartisan immigration think tank
  16. 16
    CBP Releases September 2024 Monthly Update
    U.S. Customs and Border Protection2024-10-22DataReleased by the Biden administration
  17. 17
    Proclamation 10888: Guaranteeing the States Protection Against Invasion
    Federal Register2025-01-29Primary documentSigned Jan. 20, 2025; courts have ruled against parts of it, and the government has appealed to the Supreme Court
  18. 18
    Refugee and Immigrant Center for Education and Legal Services v. Noem
    Civil Rights Litigation Clearinghouse, University of Michigan Law School2026-10-27ResearchCase summary and dockets; the D.C. Circuit ruled on April 24, 2026, and stayed its mandate pending a Supreme Court petition
  19. 19
    Fact Check: Trump Border Policy
    Just Security (Hoopes, Hausman and Cox)2026-02-03ResearchThe authors summarize their study of nine enforcement policies under Obama, Trump and Biden; they are critical of current policy
  20. 20
    2024 Democratic Party Platform
    Democratic National Committee2024-08Primary document
  21. 21
    Roll Call Vote 118th Congress, 2nd Session, Vote 39 (H.R. 815)
    U.S. Senate2024-02-07Primary documentFailed 49-50
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  29. 29
    Crime Trends in U.S. Cities: Mid-Year 2026 Update
    Council on Criminal Justice2026-07ResearchNonpartisan criminal-justice think tank; says its data are not evidence for or against any policy
  30. 30
    FBI Releases Data on Crime in the Nation for 2021
    FBI2022-10-19DataThe FBI calls the 2021 trends not statistically significant
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    Criminal Victimization, 2022
    Bureau of Justice Statistics2023-09Data
  33. 33
    Do Political Parties Matter? Evidence from U.S. Cities
    NBER (Ferreira and Gyourko)2007-10ResearchLater published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics
  34. 34
    Factors affecting gasoline prices
    U.S. Energy Information AdministrationData
  35. 35
    Oil prices and outlook
    U.S. Energy Information AdministrationData
  36. 36
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    The Price Impact of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release
    U.S. Department of the Treasury2022-07-26ResearchThe Biden administration's own analysis of its policy
  38. 38
    Gasoline Prices
    Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets, Chicago Booth2012-03-19Research
  39. 39
    Immigration Enforcement Actions: 2022
    DHS Office of Homeland Security Statistics2023-11DataFinds 2.34 million southwest border encounters in 2022 but 1.74 million unique one-year encounters

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