Oil's war profits are real. "$125 billion richer" looks like a total

The number matches a Democratic committee report's total for the first half, which isn't a gain. The added profit from April through September was over $83 billion, by our subtraction from a New York Times estimate.

It matches a report from Joint Economic Committee Democrats: "around $125.2 billion" for major producers in the first half of 2026³. Sanders names no source, so that link is our inference. Both its pieces, $85.2 billion and about $40 billion, come from Climate Power, an advocacy group, which counts 27 companies without listing them all⁴.

Companies profit in ordinary years too. The Times counted more than $130 billion from April through September for 50-plus U.S. companies, a "conservative estimate" that leaves out March and October, against under $47 billion a year earlier^1,2. Third-quarter numbers are partly analyst estimates⁵. We read only part, so whether it's after tax or U.S.-only is unknown.

2025 was low. U.S. crude averaged about $65 in mid-2025, against $87 to $95 in those quarters this year⁶. Exxon's $29.9 billion for those two quarters is below its $37.5 billion in 2022, by our sum, about $43 billion in today's dollars^7,8,9. Its reported first quarter fell to $4.2 billion from $7.7 billion on hedge timing, and rose excluding that and one-offs¹⁰.

$2,000 matches one economist's estimate of the war's cost per household. Nearly half of it isn't energy. Oil exporters did gain, and that side of the ledger isn't counted.

Sanders gives no source, but it matches Moody's economist Mark Zandi: about $265 billion since late February, or about $2,000 a household¹¹. Energy, including passed-through costs, is about $1,100¹². About $540 is higher interest rates and $360 is the Pentagon's bill per household, by Zandi's count^13,14. Brown University's tracker, modeling a no-war price, puts extra gas and diesel spending near $148 billion¹⁵. The White House called Zandi "a Democrat donor who is frequently wrong." He advised John McCain in 2008, CNN notes¹¹.

"Poorer" is Sanders's word. Zandi says the costs absorbed "about half" of households' income gain over eight months¹⁶. Real hourly earnings fell 0.7% in the year to September, and weekly earnings 0.1%¹⁷.

Trump's mirror claim, "we're making a fortune" in "Texas and Oklahoma and North Dakota"¹⁸, gets the same verdict. The petroleum trade surplus from March through August was $75.7 billion, against $25.5 billion a year earlier, by our sum¹⁹. That money reaches producers, not every household. His "trillions" has no support we could find²⁰.

Company filings and a Times count of 50-plus firms show it, and filings credit higher fuel margins and crude prices. Trump said in August that the companies were making "too much money"²¹.

Chevron earned $9.9 billion in the third quarter, up from $3.5 billion a year earlier. Its U.S. refining and marketing arm went from $0.6 billion to $3.6 billion on "higher margins on refined product sales"²². Exxon earned $34.1 billion in the first nine months, up from $22.3 billion⁷. Reuters reports Exxon is making more from refining than from production for the first time in at least six years²³.

"Gas prices" is shorthand. Much of this comes from diesel and other fuels, and from outside the U.S.: about 35% of Chevron's third-quarter segment earnings, by our calculation²².

Drivers paid more and refiners earned more on the same fuel, so the link is real. But the war moved the world price, and we found no measure of how much reached these companies.

Against: "Exxon and Chevron do not set the price of American oil," AP reports²⁴. EIA says output losses peaked at 10.9 million barrels a day in May⁶. Chevron says 10% of world refining is offline²⁵.

For: refining's share of a gallon of gas went from 18% of $3.13 last August to 24% of $4.06 this August, and diesel's from 20% of $3.74 to 40% of $5.46^26,27. By our rough arithmetic, gas added 41 cents for refining and 43 for crude. Diesel added $1.44 for refining and 45 cents for crude. That fits scarcity as well as market power.

DOJ and the FTC asked states in July to probe retail gas prices. California's energy regulator said in June it was investigating. We found no violation^28,29. Sanders's May "rip off" post compared gas with March 2011³⁰. By our math, in May 2026 dollars, pump price minus crude rose from $1.51 to $1.95 on his figures. EIA's averages: May 2026 was $2.05, up from $1.67 in March 2011, but down from $2.23 in May 2011^31,32,9.