Read the post as text
This is exactly what fraud looks like. A state that was +8% for Cruz, and +13% for Trump in 2024 are now nearly +30% for Talarico. Fraud. Fraud. Fraud. FRAUD.
Elections
Talarico won Texas by about 12, not 30. We found no sign of fraud.
A viral post mistook a 29.5-point swing for Talarico's lead. The swing was real, and it came on a night of big Democratic gains.
The bottom line
Texas backed Trump by 13.7 points and Cruz by 8.5 in 2024. But Talarico wasn't up 30 when the post went up. That was the swing since 2024. He led by about 16 then and about 12 by morning. Paxton and Gov. Abbott, who both lost, conceded. Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina swung 17 to 22 points toward Democrats.
The claims
What the post says or clearly implies, checked one by one. How verdicts work
1
Texas was +8% for Cruz and +13% for Trump in 2024.
Checks outBy our calculation from official results, Trump's 2024 margin was 13.68 points and Cruz's 8.50. The post rounds both down.
Trump won 56.14% to Kamala Harris's 42.46%, and Cruz won 53.05% to Colin Allred's 44.56%, according to the secretary of state1. Computed from the vote totals, the margins are 13.68 and 8.50 points, by our calculation. The results page in the post shows 13.69 and 8.502.
Trump's 2024 margin, built on gains with Latino voters, was the largest of his three Texas runs3. Cruz won by 15.83 points in 2012 and 2.57 in 2018, by our calculation4,5.
2
Texas is now "nearly +30%" for Talarico.
WrongThe 29.52 in the photo measures the swing since Trump's 2024 win. Talarico led by about 15.8 points at that moment and by about 11.8 by Wednesday morning.
The photo shows Decision Desk HQ's "Performance" table, which it describes as "How candidates performed compared to past elections"2. MARGIN is the 2024 result. SHIFT is how far the margin has moved since. Both rows give the same lead: 29.52 minus Trump's 13.69, or 24.33 minus Cruz's 8.50, is 15.83 points for Talarico, by our calculation, with 61% of the expected vote in.
By early Wednesday the state's unofficial count, with 253 of 254 counties reporting, had Talarico at 54.95% and Paxton at 43.12%, an 11.83-point lead6. DDHQ's table now reads "Talarico+25.49%" against Trump2.
3
A swing this big is "exactly what fraud looks like."
WrongA swing isn't evidence of fraud, and we found no report of irregularities from any official, court or candidate. Three other states Trump won easily swung 17 to 22 points that night. Paxton and Gov. Abbott, who both lost, conceded.
Texas's chief election officer, Secretary of State Robert Howden, was appointed by Abbott in July7. Paxton conceded Tuesday night: "Let me start off by congratulating James Talarico"3. Abbott, who lost to Democrat Gina Hinojosa, conceded too8. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who also lost, said, "It was a fair election," and the Tribune reported limited voting problems9.
Against Trump's 2024 margins, Democrats gained 22.35 points in South Carolina's Senate race, 20.99 in Kansas and 17.29 in Iowa, by DDHQ's count, and won all three10,11,12. Texas's 25.49 was the largest of the four2. In Texas's exit poll, 58% disapproved of Trump and 60% called military action against Iran the wrong decision. Talarico won 11% of Trump's 2024 voters13.
Talarico beat his final RealClearPolling average, a 2.6-point lead, by about 9 points, by our calculation. Polls in that average ranged from Paxton up 1 to Talarico up 714. Texas has seen big swings before: the Republican Senate margin fell from 27.20 points in 2014 to 2.57 in 201815,5.
Texas's Senate margin dropped nearly 25 points by 2018, then flipped
Republican share minus Democratic share of all votes cast for U.S. Senate, our calculation from official vote totals, rounded to 0.01. Negative means the Democrat led. 2026 is the unofficial count with 253 of 254 counties reporting.
Show the numbers
| Year | Republican lead (points) |
|---|---|
| 2012 | 15.83 |
| 2014 | 27.2 |
| 2018 | 2.57 |
| 2020 | 9.64 |
| 2024 | 8.5 |
| 2026 | -11.83 |
The real disagreement
Facts can't settle this part, so we don't rule on it.
When an election swings sharply from the last one, how much checking (audits, investigations) builds trust in the count, and when does it start to wear it down?
Texas lets a losing candidate request a recount only if the margin is less than 10% of the winner's vote16. Paxton's deficit is about 21.5% of Talarico's vote, by our calculation. The state's routine audit covers four randomly drawn counties after each even-year November election17, and the statewide canvass must happen between Nov. 21 and Dec. 718. In Texas's exit poll, 31% weren't confident the election was run fairly in their state13.
Check surprising results, every time
Quick, public checks of unexpected results, whoever wins, are how the losing side's voters come to trust them.
Audits find real problems. Texas's own audit of the 2020 election found that mobile ballot boxes holding 184,999 cast vote records in Harris County "did not have proper chain of custody"19. Nobody would have known without looking. In North Carolina in 2018, the state board refused to certify a U.S. House race while it investigated, then found it "corrupted by fraud" and ordered a new election20.
Before this election, only 69% of Republicans nationally were confident administrators would count fairly21. Paxton can't request a recount at this margin16, and the state's random audits come long after the fact. Its full audits of four counties' 2021–2022 elections are dated Aug. 23, 202417. A fast, public check of the counties that swung most would answer doubters with evidence instead of reassurance.
Wait for evidence before investigating
Routine audits should run as usual, but a big swing alone isn't evidence, and treating it as one tells voters a fair count is suspect.
Texas's Republican Senate lead fell nearly 25 points between 2014 and 201815,5, and states Trump won easily swung nearly as far as Texas on Tuesday10,11. Texas already audits. Its 2020 review concluded that when the election code and local procedures are followed, voters "should have a very high level of confidence in the accuracy of the outcome"19.
Doubt follows who expects to lose. In Texas's exit poll, 75% of voters who weren't confident the election was run fairly in Texas voted for Talarico13. Nationally, 52–67% of Republicans expected a few thousand or more cases of each kind of fraud asked about, against 10–19% of Democrats21. Investigations launched on a margin alone tell voters the count is suspect before anyone finds a problem. The Republicans who lost Texas saw the same numbers and conceded9.
Where they agree
- Texas counties must post the number of voters who checked in next to the number of ballots cast, a check anyone can run22.
What would change minds
- The official canvass, and whether any county's ballot count fails to match its count of voters who checked in.
- Precinct-level results showing where the swing came from, compared with each county's 2024 turnout.
Sources
Every source was opened and read. Advocacy groups are labeled as such.
Show all 22 sources
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
- 5
- 6
- 7
- 8
- 9
- 10
- 11
- 12
- 13
- 14
- 15
- 16
- 17
- 18
- 19
- 20
- 21
- 22
Think we got something wrong? Email editor@viewfromthegallery.com with a source. Corrections are made openly and logged on the page.
Get new breakdowns by email
New breakdowns in your inbox: what was true, what wasn't, and what the argument is really about. No ads, no spin.