Trump's $4 billion for Israel checks out. A year-end cutoff isn't set.

A 2016 agreement sets $3.8 billion a year. With programs outside it, fiscal 2026's total was about $4.0 billion. It's grant money Israel mostly has to spend on U.S. weapons.

The agreement, signed under Obama, covers fiscal 2019 through 2028: $33 billion in military grants and $5 billion for missile defense, "subject to congressional appropriation"¹. The fiscal 2026 spending law provides "not less than $3,300,000,000 ... for grants only for Israel," plus $500 million for joint missile defense programs².

Congress added $202 million in fiscal 2026, which ended Sept. 30, for joint programs outside the agreement, for about $4.0 billion in all, by our addition^3,2. Fiscal 2025 came to about $3.92 billion by the same method¹. Wartime aid comes on top. An April 2024 supplemental added $3.5 billion in grants and $5.2 billion for missile defense¹.

Trump called it "things and money"⁴. The grants are paid up front into an account, but the share Israel may spend at home is shrinking to zero by 2028, so nearly all of it buys U.S. weapons¹.

The aid is a small slice of Israel's military budget, and Netanyahu says he wants it gone. But Israel pays for some big U.S. weapons orders over years with future aid, and it's restocking after the Iran war.

Israel spent $48.3 billion on its military in 2025, according to SIPRI⁵. The $3.8 billion is about 8 percent of that, by our calculation. Netanyahu told 60 Minutes in May, "I want to draw down to zero the American financial support"⁶. Trump added today, "If they did need it, I would say keep it going"⁷.

As of April 2025, Israel had 751 open U.S. arms cases worth $39.2 billion. It pays for some big orders, like fighter jets, over years with future aid^1,3. Without new aid, CRS says, Israel would have to pay with its own funds, find other financing or cancel contracts¹. It's also "seeking munitions replenishment in light of the war in Iran"³.

Netanyahu did pitch ending the aid, and Israeli officials knew of a plan to end it. But no deal to stop it this year has surfaced, and Israeli officials say the timing surprised them.

Netanyahu has talked publicly about ending aid since at least May 2025¹, and pitched Trump in person at Mar-a-Lago in late December. Trump "was bewildered and did not immediately support the move," Jewish Insider reported. It added that Netanyahu floated Israel not taking some of the aid in 2027 and 2028⁸.

On 60 Minutes in May, he said he'd told Trump. He wanted to "start now and do it over the next decade." It "could go down very fast," he added⁶. In June he said he wanted it "to start in the last two years of the Trump administration"⁹. Formal talks opened that month on a framework to "gradually transition from aid to a completely reciprocal partnership," with no end date¹⁰.

Netanyahu's office declined to comment today¹¹. A senior defense official told public broadcaster Kan, "We did not expect this announcement, certainly not today." Finance Ministry officials said they knew of the plan to end aid but were surprised it would happen immediately⁷.

Congress sets this money, and nothing has been done to stop it. Fiscal 2026's $3.3 billion was due to be paid out by early March, and the House voted in July to keep it in fiscal 2027.

Trump said aid "gets cut off at the end of the year"¹². The fiscal 2026 law, signed Feb. 3, told the government to pay Israel's grants within 30 days^2,13. So what's left to cut is fiscal 2027's money, now running on a stopgap through Dec. 11, which gives Congress a chance to act first¹⁴. The House's fiscal 2027 bill keeps $3.3 billion¹⁵, and members rejected an amendment to end it, 314 to 104¹⁶.

A president can ask Congress for zero, or propose canceling funds. Under the Impoundment Control Act, money he withholds must be released unless Congress agrees within 45 days¹⁷. In 2025 the Supreme Court let about $4 billion in other foreign aid lapse under a disputed "pocket rescission," in an interim order that found the administration likely to prevail but wasn't a final ruling¹⁸. Israel could also decline the money. Neither government has taken any of those steps^7,11.