El-Sayed beat AIPAC's super PAC twice. Filings show $31.5 million against him or for rivals. A reported transfer of up to $9 million isn't filed.
El-Sayed: To AIPAC who spent $42 million against us. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to beat you twice. [Attached: a 1:23 clip of Abdul El-Sayed's Michigan Senate victory speech, from MeidasTouch's election-night coverage.]
El-Sayed beat AIPAC's super PAC in the primary and the general. Its FEC filings show about $31.5 million against him or for his opponents. Getting to $42 million takes an ad tracker's higher primary estimate plus a reported transfer of up to $9 million to a pro-Rogers group, which won't be on file until December.
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AIPAC's super PAC has reported about $31.5 million against him or for his opponents. The rest depends on a higher ad-tracker estimate and a news report, citing two unnamed sources, of up to $9 million more.
El-Sayed's target in his victory speech1,2 was United Democracy Project (UDP), AIPAC's super PAC. It's legally separate, but AIPAC is its largest donor, with $30 million in 20253. An AIPAC spokesperson has called it "one of the most important tools that AIPAC members use"4. "AIPAC" is fair shorthand.
In the Aug. 4 primary, UDP reported $30.7 million: $20.1 million against El-Sayed and $10.5 million for his rival, Haley Stevens5. AdImpact, an ad tracker, put its primary spending at $33 million4. In the general, UDP has filed $827,926 against him and for Republican Mike Rogers, by our count6.
The New York Times, citing two unnamed sources, reported that UDP was sending up to $9 million to the Great Lakes Conservatives Fund, a pro-Rogers super PAC, after the Oct. 14 disclosure cutoff. Newsweek emailed AIPAC for comment, and its story has no reply4. That fund reported $19.6 million against El-Sayed6. AdImpact's $33 million plus $9 million is exactly $42 million. With UDP's filed general spending, it's about $42.8 million. With FEC figures, about $40.5 million.
AIPAC's super PAC spent to defeat him in both races, and AIPAC said in August it wanted voters to reject him in November. He won the certified primary, and AP has called the general for him.
The primary was close. Official results give El-Sayed 48.45% to Stevens' 47.55%, a margin of 13,792 votes7. Mallory McMorrow, who dropped out after absentee ballots were printed, still drew 4.00%8,7. Afterward, AIPAC said its members were "determined to ensure that voters reject Dr El-Sayed" in November9.
AP called the general for El-Sayed at 2:27 a.m. ET1. Unofficial state results at 7 a.m., with 81 of 83 counties in, had him at 49.41% to Rogers' 48.57%, a lead of 30,496 votes10.
On the record so far, AIPAC's money went mostly into the primary. In the general, Senate Leadership Fund, the Senate Republicans' main super PAC, reported $46.2 million against El-Sayed, by our count, next to UDP's $0.76 million against him6.
Facts can't settle this part, so we don't rule on it.
How much should a single-issue super PAC spend in a party's primaries and general elections, and is that ordinary advocacy or outsized influence?
In 2010 the Supreme Court ruled that the government can't limit independent election spending by corporations and unions11. A federal appeals court then ruled that groups that only spend independently can take unlimited contributions from individuals, though they must disclose them12. UDP, founded in January 2022, must report its donors to the FEC13. On Oct. 21 AIPAC said it would stop endorsing candidates and giving to them directly, but UDP will keep operating14.
Americans who support Israel organizing in both parties is advocacy like any other, and voters have the final say.
Americans who back Israel organize like gun owners and environmentalists. UDP says it works to elect candidates who will be "strong supporters of the U.S.-Israel relationship in Congress"13. El-Sayed had called Israel's Gaza campaign a genocide and its government evil15. Other single-issue groups raise as much. Crypto's Fairshake super PAC took in $138.2 million this cycle16. The network works both parties. AIPAC's endorsed winners in 2024 were 120 Democrats and 206 Republicans17, and UDP spent over $3 million against Republican Thomas Massie this year13.
Spending to persuade "presupposes that the people have the ultimate influence over elected officials," the Supreme Court wrote11. In Michigan, UDP spent over $30 million, and voters picked El-Sayed anyway. Candidates backed by AIPAC's PAC won about 79% of close primaries in 2022 and 2024, economist Dany Bahar found, below the NRA's 84% and the Sierra Club's 88%18.
A single-issue super PAC funded by a few large donors can outspend everyone in a party's primary without naming its issue, then back the other party's nominee.
UDP put $30.7 million into one state's Democratic primary5. Only 1.7% of its money came from Michigan donors, and, leaving out AIPAC's own $30 million, 36% of its large gifts came from donors who lean Democratic and 22% from donors who lean Republican, Responsible Statecraft found19. Its Michigan ads "never mention Israel," AP reported, and "most voters are unlikely to realize many of the ads blanketing Michigan's airwaves are funded by AIPAC"15.
In 2024, UDP spent $14.6 million in Rep. Jamaal Bowman's primary and $8.6 million in Rep. Cori Bush's, by our sum of FEC data20. Both lost21. This cycle, UDP "shielded more than 40 percent of the money it has spent across primaries" through pass-through PACs, Politico reported in June13. After losing Michigan's primary, UDP was reportedly sending up to $9 million to a pro-Rogers group after the last pre-election filing deadline4.
Every source was opened and read. Advocacy groups are labeled as such.
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